New challenges and drivers of growth for the global insurance market in 2025-2026
Swiss Re has outlined the main challenges and drivers of growth for the global insurance market in 2025. The insurance industry continues to be under pressure from geopolitical instability, social tensions and economic uncertainty, which could lead to an increase in the number of insured losses in the near term, according to a report by the Swiss Re Institute.
2024 was the fifth consecutive year when insured losses from natural catastrophes exceeded $100 billion. This trend shows no signs of slowing down.
The growth of natural catastrophe losses remains one of the key risk factors for the insurance market. Geopolitical tensions will also slow global economic growth, which will lead to higher inflation and risks of supply chain disruptions.
Social inflation remains a serious challenge for the industry, especially in the US market. Over the past decade, the size of liability claims in the US has increased by 57%, and judgments exceeding $10 million are becoming more common. This creates additional financial pressure on insurance companies and may lead to higher insurance rates.
Global Life and Property Insurance Market
The global insurance market will show above-average growth over the next two years. The volatile non-life market will reach a tipping point, while life sales will gradually decline after record results.
We forecast that overall real growth in global insurance premiums in 2025 and 2026 will average 2.6%, which is lower than in 2024 (4.6%), but higher than the average for the previous five years (1.6% in 2019–2023).
Stable economic growth, a resilient labor market, rising real incomes amid subdued inflation and continued high long-term rates will support demand for insurance services.
Ivan Gonzalez, CEO of Corporate Solutions, outlined three key trends for commercial insurance in 2025.
First, companies around the world will continue to adapt their risk management strategies to new challenges, including climate change and social inflation.
Secondly, in a situation of stable price levels, insurers must find innovative solutions to support customers.
Third, the balance between primary insurance, reinsurance and alternative methods of risk transfer will be a decisive factor in increasing the resilience of both insurers themselves and corporate clients.
Swiss Re experts emphasize that growing risks require new approaches to risk management and transfer. The industry should continue to invest in knowledge and analytical tools that will allow for a better understanding of risks and effectively reduce their impact on clients’ businesses.